Global Christianity 2026: A Peek into the Potential Future
By Gina Zurlo
Dr. Gina Zurlo is a Senior Researcher and Lecturer in World Christianity, Harvard Divinity School and Editor of the World Christian Database.
Every year since 1985, the team at the World Christian Database has produced an article on the status of global Christianity in the January issue of the International Bulletin of Mission Research (in addition to a handy one-page statistical table here). This year’s article for 2026 highlights new future projections to 2075. What might World Christianity look like 50 years into the future? Let’s take a look at changes in the last 50 years as we journey into what may lie ahead.
Photo by David Watkis on Unsplash
In 1975, 54% of Christians lived in the global North (defined by the United Nations as Europe and North America), and 46% lived in the South (Africa, Asia, Latin America and the Caribbean, and Oceania). This shift has clearly continued, with 69% of Christians living in the South in 2025, rising to an estimated 83% by 2075. As the chart below shows, this shift represents a near-complete reversal of Christianity’s North/South demographics from 1900 to 2075.
Source: Gina A. Zurlo, “A Demographic Profile of Global Christianity,” in Compact Atlas of Global Christianity, edited by Kenneth R. Ross, Gina A. Zurlo, and Todd M. Johnson (Edinburgh University Press, 2025), 10.
From a continental perspective, shown below, the most dramatic changes since 1975 have been the continued growth of Christianity in Africa and the decline in Europe. Fifty years ago, 38% of all Christians worldwide lived in Europe and 12% in Africa. Today, those figures are 21% in Europe and 38% in Africa. Fifty years into the future, it is likely that just 10% will live in Europe, and 47% in Africa.
Source: Gina A. Zurlo, “A Demographic Profile of Global Christianity,” in Compact Atlas of Global Christianity, edited by Kenneth R. Ross, Gina A. Zurlo, and Todd M. Johnson (Edinburgh University Press, 2025), 11.
The science of projections determines the future if all things remain the same – which, of course, they rarely do. Standard demographic projections cannot account for acts of war, famine, natural disasters, and other life-altering events that prompt mass migration or unexpected changes in fertility or mortality. Nevertheless, demographic projections help individuals and organizations anticipate potential future scenarios and should encourage sound decision-making in the present. If current trends continue, it is likely that the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Nigeria will both surpass the United States as the countries with the most Christians by 2075. It is anticipated in the 21st century that most religious change will be driven by birth rates, and both the DRC and Nigeria have much higher birth rates than in the US – 6.16 births per woman and 5.24, respectively, compared to just 1.66 in the US. The remaining countries with the most Christians are expected to largely stay the same: China, Brazil, Ethiopia, the Philippines, India, Mexico, and Tanzania.
A trend to closely watch is the proportions of the world’s population that are Christian and Muslim. Adherence to both religions is expected to increase, but Muslims generally have more children than Christians, meaning their growth is projected to be much faster. By 2075, if current trends continue, the world will be 36% Christian and 33% Muslim, pointing to a future where Islam will eventually become the world’s largest religion (see the Compact Atlas of Global Christianity for additional data for 2025 and 2075).
See the January issue of the International Bulletin of Mission Research for further commentary on the projected world in 2075, including secularization, migration, fertility rates, population trends, and new global indicators related to the environment, education, and refugees. A sneak peek: In 2075, the personal income of Christians worldwide could together total US$80 trillion – more than two thousand times the amount needed to save millions of infants’ lives per year. Demography isn’t necessarily destiny, and the future is not certain, but projections help us imagine that a different world is possible.
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